Trading in the Global Sports Betting Market
If bets were placed on the toss of a coin, the probability of heads is 50 %, the probability of tails is 50%. Regarding bookmaker decimal odds, 50% probability is expressed as odds of 2.0. Which means that if bets were continuously placed on either heads or tails at odds of 2.0, over the long term the bettors’ bankroll would break even.
However, if odds of 2.2 were available from the market, the odds of 2.2 are miss-priced as they are greater than 2, which means a real odds edge is available. The correctly priced odds are 2 which is a probability of 50%, odds of 2.2 is a probability of 45.5%, which means a real odds edge of +4.5% (50% – 45.5%) exists.